united-states-presidential-election-2024

United States Presidential Election 2024

The 2024 United States presidential election was held on 5 November 2024, in which Republican nominee Donald J. Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala D. Harris. Trump, who had previously served as the 45th President (2017-2021), became the 47th President upon his inauguration on 20 January 2025 - making him the second president in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms, after Grover Cleveland.1) Harris, the incumbent Vice President, had secured the Democratic nomination in July 2024 following President Joseph R. Biden's withdrawal from the race. The election drew significant attention for its late candidate substitution, historically high spending, and results that shifted several previously Democratic-leaning states to the Republican column.

Background

Biden had announced his re-election campaign in April 2023 and was the presumptive Democratic nominee through the spring of 2024. Following a debate performance on 28 June 2024 against Trump that prompted widespread calls within the Democratic Party for his withdrawal, pressure mounted for Biden to end his candidacy. Biden announced the end of his candidacy on 21 July 2024 and endorsed Harris. The Democratic National Committee subsequently nominated Harris through an accelerated virtual roll call process, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz selected as her running mate. Trump had secured the Republican nomination through the primary process and selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate at the Republican National Convention in July 2024.

Trump had been the subject of four separate criminal indictments during the election cycle - two federal and two state - as well as a civil fraud judgment in New York. He was convicted on 34 felony counts in New York state court in May 2024 in a case related to falsified business records. Legal challenges to his eligibility under the Fourteenth Amendment's insurrection clause were rejected by the Supreme Court in Trump v. Anderson (2024). A summary of the legal proceedings and their political significance can be found at United States Presidential Election 2024 - History.

Results

Trump won 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, carrying all seven contested swing states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Trump also won the national popular vote with approximately 49.8% to Harris's 48.3%2) - the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. Republicans retained control of the Senate and regained a majority in the House of Representatives, giving the incoming administration unified control of the legislative and executive branches.

Major Issues

The election was contested across a broad range of policy issues. Immigration and border security, inflation and cost of living, abortion access following the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, democracy and institutional norms, foreign policy (including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza), and the fitness and age of candidates were among the most prominent. Interpretations of what the results imply about voter priorities are discussed at United States Presidential Election 2024 - Debate.

Viewpoints

Democratic Mandate: Proponents of this view hold that Trump's victory, including the popular vote majority, represented a broad public repudiation of the Biden-Harris administration's record on the economy, border, and governance, and constitutes a mandate for the policy agenda Trump campaigned on.

Corrective Election: A related but distinct view holds that the results were primarily a negative verdict on incumbents - driven by cost-of-living concerns and dissatisfaction with Biden's tenure - rather than an affirmative endorsement of Trump's specific agenda.

Democratic Substitution Concern: Some analysts argue that the late replacement of Biden with Harris, without a contested primary, undermined democratic norms within the party and handicapped the Democratic campaign by denying voters a full nominating process.

Democratic Backsliding Concern: Opponents of Trump's return to office contend that his election - given his post-2020 conduct, criminal convictions, and stated intentions regarding executive power - poses a structural risk to democratic institutions, independent of the policy debate.

Third-Party and Protest Vote Effects: Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who suspended his campaign in August 2024 but remained on some ballots) drew votes in several close states. Analysts disagree on whether and how their presence affected the outcome.

Footnotes

  1. Associated Press. “2024 Presidential Election Results.” AP Elections, November 2024.
  2. Federal Election Commission. “2024 Presidential Election Popular Vote Totals.” FEC.gov.
  3. Trump v. Anderson, 601 U.S. ___ (2024).
  4. Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, 597 U.S. 215 (2022).
  5. Cook Political Report. “2024 Electoral College Results.” Cook Political Report, November 2024.
  6. The New York Times. “Biden Drops Out of 2024 Race.” 21 July 2024.
1)
The first was Grover Cleveland, who served as the 22nd President (1885-1889) and the 24th President (1893-1897).
2)
Federal Election Commission. “2024 Presidential Election Popular Vote Totals.” FEC.gov.
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